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Need an account? Click here to sign up. Download Free PDF. Torsten Howind John Hughes. Related Papers. Progress in Physical … Understanding the decay of stone-built cultural heritage. Volume I: … Biodeterioration of stone monuments: A critical review. B The focus now shifts to the retail and private banking operations. The trick will be to effect substantial changes to systems, products and cheat relation- ships white minimising customer disrup- tion and revenue losses. For investors, the extent of any upside will only become apparent next year.

But a tactical case can he made as to why it may outperform Credit Suisse, its main rival its exposure to the turmoil in Rus- sia Is almost certainly less, while the risk management skills inherited from SBC should stand the bank in good stead. Finally, weakness in US investment bank- ing may. To make matters worse, a Federal Reserve survey this week points to weaker loan demand from big companies for the -first time since early The obvious way to counter.

But investors are increasingly sus- picious of the benefits of such mergers. With any rise in bad debts from a stewing economy having yet to make itself felt, there is little relief in sight for bank stocks.

Top broadcasters Java for set-top s By Join Sapper. It is too soon to assess the potential of the merged vehicle properly. After four years of strong outperformance, the femfcfwg sec- tor has dropped 20 per cent in the past five weeks and has now lagged behind the market by almost IS per cent so far in Investors are worried about the over- seas exposure of the big money centre banks. Meanwhile, domestic regional hankg and thrifts are seeing interest mar- How nice to have a positive European story involving British Airways.

But thfe deal Is also all about horse trading. The hope for Airbus, which has medium term flotation plans, is that its rapid build-up of orders over the past few years will allow it to maximise manufacturing efficiency. Big single orders like this one hdp It save costs by increasing standardi- sation.

But most important is that when all the factories and other facflitifts are brought under the Airbus wing, the man- agement will have the freedom to make the most cost-effectrve use of ft Daimler- Benz Aerospace and British’ Aerospace should be pushing hard for this on behalf of their shareholders. Leading European broadcasters have chosen Java, the software licensed by US computer company Sun Microsystems, as the likely operat- ing software for the next generation of digital televisions and set-top boxes.

The move by the Geneva-based Digital Video Broadcasting project, a body that is trying to set global stan- dards for digital television hardware and software, reinforces the emerg- ing strength of Java in television. It also represents a setback for efforts by Microsoft, a rival of Sun Microsystems, to repeat Its success with Windows on personal comput- ers and secure the same dominance over operating systems for digital television.

The move follows prolonged lobby- ing by different European broadcast- ers to persuade the DVB project to adopt their own standards for set-top boxes. US and Austra- lia. The organisation has no” legal sta- tus, and cannot enforce decisions on broadcasters and manufacturers.

The steering board, which was p lanning to announce its strategy next month, has opted for Java after considering alternative systems used in current set-top boxes. This would provide an opportunity to integrate rival systems. A long-running dispute between Microsoft and Sun recently led Sun to legal action to prevent Micro- soft launching its Windows 98 PC operating system.

Sun 1ms accused Microsoft of trying to modify Java to reinforce Windows. The DVB said it could not com- ment on decisions taken by its steering board which have not been announced. The deal followed several days of negotiations in New York, involving commissioners for several of the largest states, including New York and California.

Both sides have lik- ened. The five insurers, which also include Zurich, Easier Leben and Winterthur of Switzerland, hope their involvement in the commission will be sufficient to deal with the demands of US lawyers who are suing them in a class’ action cm behalf of Holocaust survivors, – However, lawyers leading the legal action win hold a press conference this morning in New York at which they are expected to attack the plan for a Voicker-style commission.

It pointed out that US class action litigation tends to take many years to resolve. Quackenhush, who has held a number of hearings on the issue, said the commission would have IS members. Six would be drawn from US insurance commissioners and Jewish organisations, while another six would be European insurers and insurance regulators. Mor» than Worid stock naritets reports manor quvs. Flceoc the finsndai Tines wed Hite; orikn tens, comment and analysis. Seweyr delate of frttm n ri m erftrtfl Brays.

On the web. Become a hotmailer today at hotmail. Sunbeam adjusts terms of employee share option plans Sunbeam, the household appliance maker, has become the latest US company to ease the terms of its employee share option plans.

Shareholders often oppose the practice, saying executives do not always face the same losses as other shareholders when shares felL Page 12 War compensation plan hits Harare Traders in Zimbabwe are preparing for more pain as stocks continue a sRde that has seen a fall of 65 per cent In – the past year. Yester- day the industrial index saw its second straight point loss as investors baled out The slip. Emerging Market Focus, Page 30 Tanker supply may cut freight rates The global tanker market is looking increasingly over-suppged in the context of tow crude ofl prices and bulging global stocks.

The impact of the record numbers of hew tankers either due or ordered fs bound to depress freight rates even further. The bank said it was the largest debt issue in India’s history.

The Resurgent India bonds were launched to bolster India’s foreign exchange reserves. Capital Markets, Page 18 Tottenham stake may be for sale Alan Sugar, the UK computer sector millionaire, might be prepared to seU his 40 per cent stake in Tottenham Hotspur football dub.

Criticism from Tottenham fans has persuaded him that a sale could be in his and the dub’s best inter- ests. Page 14, with Comment Wool stock freeze unsettles sector A decision by Australia to freeze wool sales from Its stockpile fora year has unsettled the wool sector. The gov- ernment then found it could not enforce s freeze without a special parliamentary sesstori. Its UK-based rival. Tlte deal win reniove the last big UK broker with stock mar- ket quotation.

Shares in the British tan- ker, which have underper- formed the stock market for several yean because of lack- lustre revenue and earnings growth, surged from M2? Ap to dose last night at 2l3p. Sedgwick will strengthen that position. Sedgwick employs 16, and Marsh 36, The deal will have to be cleared by European and US competition authorities. Ana- lysts said customers may be concerned that the large num- ber of takeovers in insurance broking la reducing choice.

The two companies began talking to each other five months ago. We’re try- ing to be not just an insurance broker, hut a financial services business. KKR said yesterday it had accep- tances for 64 per cent of the shares in Willis and extended its offer untQ September 7. Picture; Coin Beere Marsh said investors repre- senting But some can accept new offers of at lent Yjp. AMP shares fell 19 cents in a rising market to end at 2L Ana- lysts said a counter-offer was unlikely.

But the group’s general and life assurance operations are. Gray fa Amsterdam Philips, the Dutch eteemadea group, yesterday warned of an unexpected loss at Its troubled telephony Joint venture with Lucent Technologies, and said the head of the business had quit following a delay in prod- uct launches.

Philips said the shortfall narrowed in the sec- ond quarter, but declined to provide a profit or sales fore- cast for the unit for The Dutch company, which had problems integrating tba Lucent acquisition, previously said the unit would reach the profit threshold this year.

But yesterday It said: “Recent developments have made it dear that a break-even situa- tion far PCC is now unlikely to be achieved in B This is mainly the result of delay In the introduction of products. PCC had planned to Introduce lines of telephones over the next year, including a screen phone, a high-speed ISDN model and a range of sophisticated cordless phones. Philips bought a 60 per cent stake and management control of Lucent’s handset business in Christened PCC, the venture has suffered from deteriorating market condi- tions this year because of increased capacity and flat demand as regional rivals, par- ticularly in Asia, raised output despite global overcapacity.

Philips shares closed up FI 1. Wlte Corroon Zurich Anted 4. Sbn, before restructuring provisions. Its shares. However, he stressed that UBS expected to claw some of these back. Mr Qspel said that allowing for these factors, operating income rose 8 per cent and net operating expenses increased 3 per cent UBS is expected to generate considerable excess capital over the next three years if it meets, its targets of roughly doubling its net income to SFrlObn-SFrllbn. One option would be for the company to buy the remaining 78 per cent of Swiss Life, which would cost around SFriObn.

UBS has said It is not inter- ested in following Credit Sui- sse, which took over Winter- thur last year, in becoming a bancassurer. Mathis Cabiallavetta. DBS’s pfraimwn. Lockheed, forced recently by domestic antitrust authorities to abandon its merger with Northrop Grumman, said it jjiad. Thomas Corcoran, president of Lockheed’s efectronicfl divi- sion, which will co-ordinate the link, said more details of V joint’ projects would be released year and next.

According to Japanese media reports, projects included missile guidance systems, weapons controls, electronic warfare hardware and air- and ship-borne radar. For Lockheed, which has been given a clear warning from Washington’s regulators that its US buying spree is over, the deal marks part -fulfil- ment of the board’s ambitions to forge international alliances and reduce Us dependence on US military budgets.

The eagle’s eye highlights a particular area of interest within its expansive field of view by an extraordinary ability to magnify that area by some two and a half times. Vision that delivers. To focus on the kind of potential in a business that we put a high value on and are prepared to pay for also takes a particular vision.

Olbn in the same period last year. With airline performance usually stronger in the sec- ond half, which includes the summer holiday period, Sabena said it hoped to make a full-year profit, per- haps more than twice the level of the first half.

That would put it ahead of the break-even target set for by Paul Reutlinger, the former Swissair marketing manager put in as Sabena chief executive in However, the airline warned that it expected a cyclical downturn in the medium term, and was pre- paring a cost-cutting pro- gramme. Some BFr2. The latest figures come only 18 months after Sabena announced a full-year loss for As well as cost cuts, Sabena admitted it had bene- fited from low fuel prices, a nd from buoyant passenger.

But the airline said it had achieved a rate of growth higher thaw the market as a. Total passenger numbers increased 32 per cent in the first half – from 3. With capacity growing more slowly, at 3L4 per cent total occupancy rates improved from G oldman Sachs’ Initial public offering, slated for November, looks likely to attract unprece- dented interest from global investors.

On Monday, the invest- ment bank confirmed In a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that the sale of per cent of its stock is to be structured as a global offering to inves- tors in the US, Europe and Asia.

Monday’s filing with the SEC. But Goldman is particu- larly strong in mergers and acquisitions, where the high- est profit margins are made. Moreover, some analysts believe that Goldman’s strong franchise in this area will allow it to hold on to high margins in the face of pricing pressures in the sector. Yet paradoxically it is more reliant on trading income, because it makes up a greater proportion of total revenues. Both run large domestic retail brokerages which are relatively expensive busi- nesses to maintain, requir- ing In both cases an army of more than Furthermore, their margins are lower than in Investment banking.

Morgan Stanley also owns the Discover credit card business, which is currently depressing its return on equity. But while Goldman appears more profitable because it has no retail bro- kerage or credit card busi- ness. In a bear mar- ket, Morgan Stanley and Merrill would both enjoy the cushion of stable revenues from these businesses. This greater stability of earnings is highly valued by investors.

One reason why Salomon Brothers toiled to survive as an independent investment bank was that its stock valu- ation was severely harmed by the perception that it was over-reliant on proprietary trading and therefore its earnings were highly vola- tile. How- ever. Merrill recently acquired.

Mercury Asset Management the lending uk f imri man- ager. Analysts suggest that fhrvi management acquisitions are likely to be. It earned 31 per cent of its total net revenues from Europe and Asia. Merrill says that it earned 28 per cent of its net reve- nues last year from outside the US.

Morgan Stanley tolled to give investors a geo- graphical breakdown. It said high levels of water in the hydroelectric system because of the wet weather caused excess capacity, forc- ing a rut in priers to the mTtswnrr. Vattenfall said operating profit amounted to SKr3.?

TTWta to W. Toron- to’s financial services index has fallen more than 20 per cent in the past month. Bank of Montreal, how- ever. Bank of Montreal said its results were buoyed by busi- ness volume growth, particu- larly in retail segments, as well as strong performance in corporate lending and treasury products.

The results, however, were hit by the effect of weak capital markets. Analysts had expected earnings of 67 cents per share. Foreign orders help to lift Linde Linde, the diversified German industrial group, yesterday unveiled a 17 per cent increase in first-half pro tax profits, to DM AFX reports from Frankfort. The -strong gain prompted the company to forecast full- year growth in sales of DMIO. Sbn, a 13 per cent increase. Foreign activities, as well as a recovery in Germany’s economic activity, contrib- uted to the first-half improvement, it said.

Domestic orders rose from DMl. Orders in hand reached a record of DM7. Linde’s plant construction division was strong in spite of the Asian crisis, with sales singing nearly 37 per cent to DM63Gtn and new orders soaring more than 50 per cent to 1. The divi- sion expects full-year sales at DMl. The materials handling division attributed its increase in sales to improved demand across Europe. Sales in the division were DMtm, up from 2-lbn last year, while new orders were up per cent at DM2.

Linde said the division readied double-digit growth rates in almost all European countries, especially France, Italy and Spain. Growth was also strong in its US unit, but demand in Asia foil. The refrigeration technol- ogy unit reported sales of DM6l8m from DMm last year. Sales were strong in the UK, France and Hun- gary.

Sunbeam, the straggling maker of household appli- ances, has become the latest US company to ease the terms of its employee share Option plane — a cnnlro ver – sial practice that has become increasingly fmnnvm in the more volatile stock market of recent months.

Similar steps have been taken by a n umb er of other companies that have seen their shares toll sharply, prompting complaints from shareholder, activists that company executives do not always face the mtm losses as other shareholders when stock prices go down.

Sunbeam representatives yesterday defended the changes, which they said would not benefit the senior executives who presided over the company’s share price collapse this spring. Charles Elson. However, in the uncertain stock markets of recent months, the practice has become more widespread. Cendant, whose shares col- lapsed after disclosure of an accounting fraud, said last month that it would lower the exercise price on share options granted to its middle managers – though senior executives would not be given any respite.

While granting inrgp num- bers of share options to Mr Dunlap and his closest lieutenants. Sunbeam also introduced a company-wide stock option plan last year. On Monday, as part of a broad-ranging restructuring, the company said that it had eased the terms of its option plans.

With theaddibon share of cyclical. Following its June demerger from Vendor, toe Dutch retailing and services group, Vedior aims to lift its market share to 20 per cent in toe Nether- lands, Belgium, France and Spain from toe 8 per cent now, through Inner growth and acquisitions. Its French division, which accounts for more than half of group business, showed a 27 per cent advance in sales. Mr Smit said price increases and capacity con- strains at its French temping oiit.

In spite of margin pressures in France and other coun- tries, Mr Smit forecast a. Aziz, managing director. Maybank is among toe country’s most prudent banks, so analysts were pleased much of the drop in net profit was to provide for rising non-performing loans.

Economists predict such loans wfll account for per cart of total banking system loans at the peak of toe crisis. Analysts say that is far lower than average. Mr Amirsham said Maybank was expending considerable effort to control its non-performing loans and predicted the ratio to total loans would remain a single digit at year’s end. Maybank was in talks with Danaharta, the Institution Malaysia is establishing to buy toe non-performing loans and assets of troubled financial institutions, he added.

However they hope to change that with toe Baan venture. Id the past five weeks, the Philadelphia Stnek Exchange. A rally yesterday morning still left many banks more than ai per cent below their highs. The decline shows a shift in sentiment since spring when a series of huge deals were agreed.

Thrifts, which make their money from mortgage lend- ing and savings deposits, also saw heavy consolida- tion, with Washington Mutual, the nation’s largest, agreeing to buy KF Ahman- son. Shores in all these compa- nies have plummeted. Analysts suggested that BancOne had alienated the market by not keeping inves- tors fully informed.

Recent market reverses also led to nerves over non- interest foe income, from activities such as capital markets, fond management and Investment banking, which have boosted many larger banks in recent years. Developments in Russia and other emerging markets hurt sentiment towards the largest International hawks , such as Citicorp and Chase Manhattan. Several analysts believed tills had been over- stated. For the largest hanks, expenses accounted for SL2 per cent of operating revenue in the first quarter of this year, up from 6L6 per cent over , the year.

Expenditures to fix the “Year ” computer prob- lem may have affected ihvt Nancy Wentzler. But she added: “Unfortu- nately, the story may be. With large and diverse’ super-regional. Resulting guidelines include counter-intuitive measures such as when used for salt extraction purposes the use of thinner poultices to reduce drying shrinkage and salt redistribution further into the substrate.

Dorn Carran. Ali D. Eleni Drakaki. Natalia Perez Ema. Log in with Facebook Log in with Google. Remember me on this computer.

Enter the email address you signed up with and we’ll email you a reset link. The risk of epiphytotic can however be greatly reduced by use of a variety of resistance genes, especially partial or durable-resistance ones, by deployment of a mosaic of varieties and speedy replacement of susceptible ones, and by vigilant crop monitoring. These strategies are well within the capabilities of most NARS and once in place, effectively counter the concern oftenexpressed about the apparent genetic uniformity of modem wheat varieties.

Vigilance cannot however be relaxed, and regional collaboration can greatly assist in this area. Notwithstanding the complexities of the phenomenon of take-all Gaeumannomyces graminis decline, as a general rule cereal monoculture leads to pathogen build up and significant yield losses which may nevertheless interact greatly with weather, tillage and other conditions. Host plant resistance exists against some of the pathogens eg. Pratylencus thomei but is not readily available in others.

Research on rotations with nonhost crops, including grass-free leguminous pastures, has recently revealed the magnitude of this soil problem in Australia, and also in Brazil. It would seem that any wheat cropping system without a break every second or third year in the sequence of wheat crops, or other wheat disease-hosting plants, is at risk.

Wheat systems globally have a long way to go to improve this aspect of sustainability. Insect pests of wheat do not seem to pose a specific threat to the sustainability of extensive wheat systems such as that in Australia although it has to be pointed out that several serious pests have not yet reached Australia.

Aphids however are a growing threat in high input intensive irrigated systems such as in Egypt, but there is no reason to believe wheat will disappear from such regions, like cotton has from others, because of insect pressure.

Being a cool season crop, insect reproduction cycles are slower. Also, with the exception of sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps which can dramatically affect grain quality, minimum insect thresholds are tolerably high and integrated pest management has a good chance of working. Weed control has always been a part of good crop husbandry. It is only when certain weeds threaten the viability of wheat cropping can we say the sustainability of the system is at risk, although we need also to be aware of the environmental risks of herbicides.

The latter refers to risks to operators and from the accumulation of strongly persistent toxic chemicals in the soil and water: both problems are soluble with good research and extension. The “super” weed phenomenon seems more worrying. Skeleton weed Chondrilla juncea , an exotic perennial composite from the Mediterranean, achieved this status in Australia some 40 years ago.

However, the use of 2,4-D based herbicides, vigorous competitive leguminous pastures in the rotation, and more recently, introduced biological control rust, weevils , has substantially reduced, but not eliminated, this pest. Annual phalaris P. The resistance of certain grass weeds like Hordeum, Lolium and A vena to a broad range of grass herbicides, which has recently arisen in several regions of the developed world including Australia, does seem a particularly challenging threat but research is also developing strategies to combat this challenge.

The likely advent of herbicide-resistant crop cultivars will add another tool to the armory of the agronomist and farmer: there are risks, for no intervention is risk free, but the biggest danger is probably to think that this development will solve all weed problems. Improved Cultivars While genetic resources are rightly considered part of the resource base of agriculture, and must be preserved as an insurance against future needs, it is their utilization by plant breeders which can have the most positive impact on cropping sustainability.

This includes improvements in yield potential, geographic adaptation, and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Wheat yield gains through greater yield potential and better adaptation to particular environments have continued ever since breeding began, receiving special boosts through the introduction of semidwarfing genes and, for developing countries at low latitudes, the use of photoperiod insensitivity and winter x spring crossing.

Modem varieties respond more to inputs of water and fertility, but they are also superior at low to moderate input levels, and are more efficient in utilization of water, nutrients and land.

And they generally carry better stress resistance although being shorter they tend to be less competitive with weeds. Economically viable and hence sustainable wheat cropping Still much remains to be done as more explicit attention is given to specific sustainability issues eg.

Since rotation of wheat with other crops and with pastures is suggested as the way forward, plant breeding has a major role to play in the improvement of these plants as well. Good examples are seen in the development of the new grain legume crop, Lupinus angustifolius, for Australian conditions currently almost 1 m ha are planted generally in rotation with wheat or the adaptation of oilseed rape, Brassica napus.

In the case of the major pasture legume in Australia, Trifolium subterraneum, selection rather than hybridization was essential to its huge success, including selection against a high content of leaf isoflavones, which in early introductions of subclover were found to induce sterility in sheep! Other Physical Elements I have dealt with soil and germplasm elements of sustainability: there remain others, water, air and climate, as mentioned at the outset.

Water enters largely in irrigated systems, through issues of over use of water supplies and induction of salinization, or in high rainfall ones where contamination of water moving off the farm with farm chemicals can be important. Questions relating to air and climate largely derive from anthropogenic activities off the farm, for example atmospheric pollution through plant-toxic ozone and nitrogen or sulphur oxides from cars and industry, or climate change arising from greenhouse gas emissions.

All these issues are still rather peripheral to the type of rainfed wheat farming system I have been discussing. But it is worth pointing out that S and even N fallout from atmospheric pollution can be significant components of the S and N cycles in agriculture. Also notwithstanding some doubts about N20 and CH4 emissions, a sustainable farming system should show almost zero net contribution of greenhouse gases, or even a net uptake of such gases if soil organic matter is rising.

Socioeconomic Elements Up to now, technical elements of sustainable wheat farming developed by research have been described. Farm profitability and farmer skill are two important socioeconomic elements. While some more sustainable practices lead to greater short-term profitability eg. Only profitable farming households, with some income to spare or access to cheap credit, can consider adopting the latter practices or investments.

Yet with steadily falling world real wheat prices Figure 2 , currently further depressed by the subsidized export sales of North America and Europe, and exposure of most other producers to these prices because of open market policies, profitability in wheat farming is less than ever. Farmers, whether in developed countries or developing ones, unwillingly, or at least unwittingly, could be driving each other towards destruction of their natural resource base.

In the absence of globally uniform and enforced regulations regarding sustainable wheat farming practices, it is quite possible that a free market, even without export subsidies, will inevitably push farmers in this direction, for the market does not reward sustainability with a higher price for wheat which is produced more sustainably. It seems to me that new market mechanisms and investment arrangements may have to be found, but this is beyond the scope of my paper.

I simply wanted to alert you to this fundamental problem, while realizing that in Eastern Africa wheat production enjoys not only reasonable natural advantages but also natural protection arising because of the high cost of moving imported wheat from the coast to the centers of consumption: Ethiopia and Uganda typify such a circumstance.

Gloomy speculations about the free market does not release us from the duty Another solution to this problem is to devise more sustainable practices which are also profitable in the short term, and therefore more likely to be adopted without coercion. Motivation, not necessarily solely driven by profit, and skill level, are also important elements in sustainable farming practices, particularly where the practices are novel and complex. Farmer support groups eg. Land Care in Australia seem to play an especially useful role in such situations.

What is needed is renewed commitment to multidisciplinary and multicommodity work and more attention to the farmers’ circumstances. These were and still are the characteristics of farming systems work.

Concern for sustainability and maintenance of natural resources does however broaden the required discipline mix and the thinking into alternative commodities, and adds a very important need to consider long term effects. The longer time dimension poses special problems. While the changes I described over years in the Australian wheat industry may be compressed into a shorter period through profiting from the experience of countries like Australia, some processes such as dryland salinization develop slowly and unpredictably.

Others like soil acidification and nutrient decline, while developing slowly, are more predictable and point to the important role of modeling soil processes.

Besides, the Australia example revealed that new unanticipated problems keep arising and therefore require continuing vigilance. History also shows that a necessary but not sufficient condition to the solution of these is usually research on the problem. Understanding of long term effects and anticipation of problems can be helped by long term experiments and by regular monitoring of the quality of the farmers’ resource base.

This requires continuity of effort and reward for carefully repeated treatments and measurements which is often lacking in research systems. Since the changes required of farmers in order to improve their system sustainability are generally more complex and skill intensive, farmers and farmer groups have a more active role to play in adaptive research leading to more sustainable systems.

Experience with adoption and modification of reduced and zero tillage systems in wheat areas of southern South America and in Australia also support this view.

It is something which should be accommodated by research and extension structures aimed at achieving more sustainable agriculture. What are the appropriate institutional arrangements in NARS for fostering the needed research and extension? Ideally we need institutions focussed on the problems of the farming systems of their surrounding districts and governed only lightly by central authority, leaving a bigger role for local community and farmer representatives, who may contribute not only to the research planning but also to its financing.

Given issues of critical mass, and ignoring problems of regions of great environmental and hence agricultural diversity, it seems such centers might target anywhere from million ha of farm land. The key staff of these centers should be socioeconomists and agronomists, but appropriate crop commodity and disciplinary specialists should be assigned to these locations from their homes of expertise within the NARS.

Financial rewards need to be biassed towards those who work closest to farmers. The private sector, apart from the farmers themselves and machinery suppliers, have little role to play because most technologies for greater sustainability are difficult to commercialize.

While NARS can greatly benefit from At Australia’s rate of investment in agricultural research of around 4. Given the likely higher rates of return from well planned research investment in NARS, there is little doubt their research investment for the total needs of their agriculture, that is productivity as well as sustainability enhancement, is quite inadequate, not to mention the fact that it is often overcentralized.

It has also for at least 20 years worked in the agronomy and economics of its mandate crops, the latter taking it into on-farm research OFR and OFR methodologies. However a role in explicit sustainability or NRMR is not so clearly established, or even considered appropriate by some investors in international agricultural research. This is partly because such research is, as I have described, necessarily multicommodity, multidisciplinary and more local or ecoregional in focus.

CIMMYT’s view is that it has a role to play because: i there are many global issues in wheat and maize cropping sustainability eg. Thus we believe we can work efficiently with NARS institutes on the more general of the issues in sustainability of wheat systems eg. We do not have funds to do much of this at present, but we have been working in the wheat-soybean cropping system of South America and have mounted a modest effort over the last 5 years in the rice-wheat one of South Asia.

Much of the early effort has been devoted to stimulating multidisciplinarity and team work in the centers, to promoting on-farm diagnosis and monitoring, and efficient mechanisms for doing this, and to analysis of results of long term experiments.

New research is now getting underway concentrating on issues like nutrition, zero tillage, and better adapted varieties for the tight crop rotation involved. We believe the project has demonstrated how international centers and NARS can usefully move forward. It is a start for CIMMYT, and we are seeking support to continue the role in the rice-wheat system and in other wheat systems. The rainfed mixed cropping wheat systems of the cool tropical highlands, as we have in eastern Africa, is one of these.

EPIWGUE I have described elements of sustainability, some technologies to achieve these, and what national and international research systems might do. I have however skirted around one important inter-related socioeconomic question that I would like to leave with you. I ask whether the Australian, or more generally Western, model of agricultural progress with the inevitable growth in farm size and reduction in farm population, is a sustainable one for developing countries?

The answer could hardly be a confident yes when one considers that developing countries are starting with higher rural population densities and that massive problems of urbanization would ensue? But if land consolidation is avoided and people stay in the countryside, can the developing countries small farmers continue to maintain their comparative family earnings as real agricultural product prices are held down by open markets and as the real costs of labor rise, which they inevitably must do if there is to be any economic development at all?

This is a dilemma with which all of us, including agriculturalists, need to be concerned. Crosson, P. Global food – resources and prospects for major cereals. World Bank: Washington, D. Donald, C. M The progress of Australian agriculture and the role of pasture in environmental change.

M Innovation in Australian Agriculture. Agriculture in The Australian Economy. Sydney Uni. Fujisaka, S. Hobbs Rice-wheat in south Asia.

Systems and long-term priorities established through diagnostic research. Systems in press. Helyar, K. R Nitrogen cycling and soil acidification. Dann Wheat: Australia’s hidden mineral export. Byeriee Wheat and barley production in rainfed marginal environments of the developing world.

Nix, H. A The Australian climate and its effects of grain yield and quality. In: Lazenby, A. Matheson eds. Field Crops Vol. Wheat and other temperate cereals. Angus and Robertson: Sydney. Powles, S. Matthews Multiple herbicide resistance in annual rye grass Lolium rigidum.

A driving force for the adoption of integrated weed management. Hollomon eds. Achievements and Developments in Combating Pesticide Resistance. Elsevier: London. Puckridge, D. French The annual legume pasture in cereal-ley farming systems of southern Australia: a review. Ecosystems and Environment 9: Rovira, A.

D Dryland Mediterranean farming systems in Australia. Davenport Broadacre Industries. Review Rural Economy 7: Walker, I. Science 5: Table 1. Key mean statistics for an Australian wheat farm. Key mean statistics for an AustraHari wheat fanil. Fischer calculations. Table 3. Mineral contents of 1 t of wheat grain from Lipsett and Dann Wheat is a staple food in Ethiopian diets, and spring bread and durum wheats are the dominant species grown in the country.

The national mean wheat grain yield is low due to suboptimal crop management practices. Almost all wheat in Ethiopia is produced under rainfed conditions although there has been some developmental research on irrigated production. Rainfed wheat is cultivated by both small-scale peasant farmers and large-scale state farms.

Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in wheat; to bridge the gap, wheat has been designated as one of the high priority commodity crops for improvement through research. Since the inception of wheat research in the country, several varieties have been disseminated to farmers with a recommended production package.

A substantial gap has been observed between yields on research stations and on farmers’ fields primarily due to inefficient transfer of technology and the lack of necessary inputs for wheat production. The major technical constraints limiting wheat production are the lack of disease resistant and high yielding varieties adapted to a range of environments, poor crop management practices, the unavailability or inadequacy of crop production inputs, and the lack of credit systems.

Current strategy is focused on the development of an effective national research and technology generation system coupled with an efficient extension and adoption mechanism that would lead to national selfsufficiency in food production, including wheat. Population statistics are of primary importance in economic projections for the ability of a nation to feed itself or earn funds necessary to cover imports. A recent census of the Ethiopian population estimated it at 51 million with a rate of increase of 3.

Population pressure in the highlands, soil degradation coupled with unreliable rainfall, and the traditional production system have led to a series of catastrophic harvests in most parts of the country. As a consequence, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in In general, the agriculture of Ethiopia is characterized by low productivity, poor management, low input levels, lack of improved technologies, and by an ineffective extension system, explaining the stagnant nature of total cereal production and the low productivity of land and labor in Ethiopia Hiruy On the other hand, the country is endowed with natural resources suitable for agricultural production to supply sufficient quantities of agricultural products for its population.

Wheat Triticum spp. Ethiopia is the largest wheat producer in sub-saharan Africa with about 0. Wheat is the fifth major cereal crop after tef, maize, barley and sorghum. The areas of wheat indicated in Table I were underestimated due to the fact that the surveys did not include Eritrea, Tigray, Assab and parts of Ogaden because of political instability.

The most suitable area, however, falls between and m Hailu The rainy season is divided into the short rains belg , falling from February to April, and the main rains meher falling from June to September. At present, wheat is produced solely under rainfed conditions although there has been some developmental research on irrigated wheat production.

Rainfed wheat is cultivated by both small-scale, subsistence farmers and large-scale, commercial state farms. The major producers are the peasant farmers in the highlands who depend on rainfall and traditional methods of production. State farms using modem technologies are of recent development, and most are in Arsi and Bale Regions producing bread wheat.

Altitude plays an important role in the distribution of wheat production through its influence on rainfall, temperature and diseases. Plant characters are also significantly affected by altitude. Soil types and moisture regimes vary from area to area. There, early, intermediate and late varieties are grown. Soil types used for wheat production vary from well-drained, fertile soils to waterlogged, heavy Vertisols. The incidence of the different wheat diseases varies with altitude and other climatic factors.

The two major altitudinal zones for durum are the m zone, which is suitable for short and intermediate season varieties, and the m wne, where intermediate season varieties are grown.

Durum wheat Triticum durum L. Theil are the two most widely grown wheat species in Ethiopia. Durum possesses immense diversity, and Ethiopia was recognized by Vavilov as a secondary center of diversity for tetraploid wheats.

Bread wheat, which has wider adaptation and higher yield potential than durum, is a recent introduction to Ethiopia.

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